Rumor has it though that Mark Cardmore
is excited about Indian and Australian
PMI data. Let's confirm this story now
and try and figure out exactly why we
are so excited. Update us. Enlighten us.
Mark, good morning.
>> I think you set the scene pretty well
there. I am scraping the bottom of the
barrel here. I admit but I did just
notice that the both the services and
manufacturing components and therefore
clearly the composite uh PMI reading for
both India and Australia were at
multi-year highs and I thought it was
just interesting given like the
negativity around global growth at the
moment India in particular is meant to
be right at the target of the of the US
trade war and you know it hasn't been
backing down is suffering from great
tariffs and yet both the manufacturing
component and service component surged
again and so you know this this global
resilience story continues to go on uh I
should I should kind of give the
disclaimer that you know the market
wasn't even excited in real time. Maybe
they all missed it too. They're not used
to these being big big market movers and
maybe that shows just how much we're
kind of scraping the bottom of the
barrel because there isn't a lot of
excitement today. The backdrop is very
exciting though. It's only because we're
on pause because there's a couple of big
dynamics in play and that's the fact we
continue to see long end yields around
the world go higher and that's into this
big key Jackson Hole meeting this
weekend where I think the risk is for
even higher longend yields. So I think
that's a very interesting dynamic. We've
obviously got tech finally weakening
which has been the whole story higher
and that goes into Nvidia earnings the
key name next week which we expect to be
beat. We expect to be super strong
earnings. I don't think it's going to
save AI. So I think that those dynamics
are really really big and and and I
think there's an interesting background
story. It's just the major catalyst to
move us on next are unfortunately not
coming until Friday.
Well, Mark, talk to us about the price
action yesterday in tech because Nvidia
was down nearly 4% during the session
and basically made its way all the way
back to flat, closing down just onetenth
of 1%. Do you read that as a bullish
fundamental that this tech dip that we
have seen for now nearly four days
straight could be bought ahead of
Jackson Hall?
>> No, I don't particularly I I wouldn't
read it as anything as being overly
bearish right just yet or overly
bullish. It's just choppy. The fact is,
you know, we know we have a couple of
key drivers, catalysts coming up in the
next few weeks. It's not just Jackson
Hole. It's not just Nvidia earnings. But
then, of course, we have that jobs data.
We want to kind of given what a shocking
NFP we had last time. We want to see
whether this follows through. And then,
of course, we have a CPI print when we
know we've got a growing inflation
problem that's broadening out before the
September FOMC. That's the next four
weeks. There's so much to to react on.
So, it's just choppy at the moment.
>> Okay. Okay. like today. We'll we'll take
it easy today, but there's there's news
coming. I promise. I hope so. Um, if
Trump fires Lisa Cook, do I sell the
dollar?
It's a great question. We didn't really
answer this morning. I think the
knee-jerk reaction is absolutely
because, you know, even if she was at
the more dobish end of the spectrum,
it's still seen as more interference in
central bank policy. So, the instinct is
to sell the dollar. Now I think probably
people that qualify that after a little
bit it doesn't sell off too much but
ultimately we know that every
replacement is still going to be in the
dovish vein from here on out. So all
these catalysts around the Fed pressure
are ultimately dollar negative.